Model the return case from the investor’s side of the table.
- Use bear, base and bull cases rather than one heroic forecast.
- Show what company value and ownership could imply for investor outcomes.
- At venture stage, a credible 5X–10X+ upside case can matter because a fund portfolio depends on asymmetric winners—but the exact hurdle varies by fund, stage and entry price.
Founders naturally think about company value: “If we build this to $300M, that is a huge outcome.” A venture investor has an additional calculation: what does that outcome mean after entry valuation, ownership, dilution, time and the return requirements of the fund?
That is why an outcome that sounds excellent to the founder can still be too small to drive a venture portfolio.
Do not present one future. Present a scenario range.
| Case | What changes | What the investor can test |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | Slower growth, higher CAC, lower retention, delayed milestone. | Can the company survive and preserve optionality? |
| Base | Plan assumptions execute approximately as expected. | Does the round create a credible next financing or profitability path? |
| Bull | Strong velocity, channel scale, expansion and/or higher terminal multiple. | Can the investment plausibly become a meaningful fund outcome? |
Why the upside case matters
Venture portfolios are shaped by power-law outcomes. That does not mean every investor requires the same exact multiple, and it does not mean founders should manufacture a 10X story. It means the deck should make the potential asymmetric outcome visible if it genuinely exists.
In our own founder-review material, we explicitly pressure-test whether there is a credible 10X bull case. A founder should understand the assumptions required to reach it rather than simply placing a large exit number on a slide.
Build the return bridge
A simple bridge can start with the investor’s entry, expected ownership after dilution, base/bull enterprise value ranges and time horizon. The purpose is not false precision. It is to show that management understands how operating milestones translate into investment outcomes.
3X is not “bad.” It may simply be insufficient for a particular venture fund.
A 3X outcome can be attractive in many contexts. But an early-stage VC may be underwriting for much larger winners because of portfolio construction, losses elsewhere and the time value of capital. Know who you are pitching.
Pressure-test your model from the investor’s return perspective.
We review the financial drivers, funded milestones and scenario logic so the upside is ambitious enough to matter and grounded enough to survive questions.
Get My Growth & Diligence Review ↗Then make sure you are targeting investors whose fund model actually fits your round through the Investor Pipeline. More venture-math notes are shared in our LinkedIn founder insights group.